Despite bold promises that tariffs would revitalize American industry, the latest data and expert forecasts paint a much different picture. As the economic consequences of President Trump’s sweeping trade policies begin to unfold, forecasters are warning of a turbulent second half of the year marked by inflation, slower growth, rising unemployment and heightened uncertainty.
While early 2025 reports showed relatively stable indicators — like 4.2% unemployment and soft inflation readings — that stability appears to have been the calm before the storm. Experts from The Conference Board, Pantheon Macroeconomics and Goldman Sachs now agree: the real economic fallout from tariffs is only just beginning.
“We estimate sizable shocks to growth, inflation and employment in the coming months, even as the U.S. administration reached an agreement to significantly reduce tariffs on imports from China,” wrote economists at The Conference Board, a nonprofit research group. Their recent analysis forecasts that even the recent deal with China won’t be enough to protect the U.S. economy from the consequences of Trump’s tariff binge.
Prices Up, Growth Down
Trump’s tariffs — particularly those targeting Chinese imports and newly threatened levies on the European Union and smartphone makers — are already causing ripple effects across the economy. Pantheon Macroeconomics predicts that 40% of the tariffs’ impact on prices will hit by July, with 70% landing by October. That means American families will soon feel the squeeze in everything from food to electronics.
Meanwhile, growth is slowing. Goldman Sachs expects final domestic sales to grow just 0.7% in the second quarter — well below the 2%+ average since 2023. And The Conference Board warns that core PCE inflation could climb to 3.3% by the end of the year. This inflation isn’t being driven by wage growth or consumer demand — it’s being imported, courtesy of higher costs passed down from businesses absorbing tariffs.
Unemployment Set to Climb
Even more troubling is the outlook for jobs. The Conference Board and Pantheon forecast rising unemployment in the months ahead, with rates projected to reach 4.6% to 4.75% by year’s end. These figures suggest that tariffs, initially promoted as a way to protect American jobs, could end up costing them instead.
And with Trump’s new tax bill advancing through Congress — a package expected to dramatically widen the federal deficit — the bond market is reacting. Yields on 10-year Treasuries have surged to 4.61%, with 30-year yields topping 5.14%. Higher yields push up borrowing costs for households and businesses, dampening consumer spending and real estate activity just as inflation starts to bite.
Consumer Confidence Sinks
Consumer sentiment is already suffering. The Conference Board’s May survey and the University of Michigan’s data both show significant drops in confidence — levels not seen since early in the pandemic. As prices rise and economic uncertainty mounts, Americans are understandably more cautious with their wallets.
March saw a surge in household spending as consumers rushed to buy goods before new tariffs took effect — especially cars. But that momentum isn’t expected to last. The Commerce Department’s April spending data will offer a clearer picture, but early indicators suggest the pace is slowing under the weight of inflation and rising interest rates.
Turning Economic Turmoil Into a Gold Opportunity
This confluence of trade war escalation, rising inflation, slowing growth, and jittery consumer confidence has investors asking one question: where can you turn for stability?
The answer, increasingly, is gold.
When inflation rises and economic confidence wanes, physical gold has historically served as a reliable hedge. Unlike the dollar, it isn’t tied to the Fed’s interest rate policy. And unlike Treasuries, it can’t be downgraded, inflated away, or subject to foreign policy blowback.
With Trump's unpredictable trade policies fueling volatility — and with global faith in the U.S. economy under strain — gold offers the kind of long-term value that transcends partisan headlines and economic policy missteps.
Shield Your Wealth From Policy-Driven Volatility
As tariffs fuel inflation, job losses rise, and economic growth stalls, now is the time to protect what you’ve built.
At Reagan Gold Group, we help investors hedge against uncertainty with IRS-approved physical gold and silver IRAs, along with secure direct delivery options. In a world where government policies can erode your purchasing power overnight, gold stands firm — immune to political reversals and economic missteps.
Book your FREE consultation today!
